If the Trump agenda is implemented in full force and quickly without a countervailing policy response from Europe or China, we could see EUR/USD drop through parity to 0.95 cents or even below.
This scenario would include tariffs of 60% or more on China with a three-year implementation pedal, and 10% tariffs on other countries which are introduced within a year and reciprocated
A more balanced approach would be tariffs of 30% or more on China, and 101 restrictions on other countries, which are implemented over two years; these would point to a EUR/USD drop to 1.00 that matches the dollar's historical record highs but does not exceed it.- Deutsche Bank
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