**As seen in Risk In The Week report 04/29/24, subscribe at cablefxm.co.uk/reports
The last quarter of 2023 saw an uptick in N.Z. employment as the quarterly figure topped economists' estimates, the headline came in at 0.4% from a prior decline of 0.2%. The jobless rate rose to 4.0%, the highest since 2Q 2021, but below the consensus median of 4.3%. The participation rate printed at 71.9%, slightly below expectations, and marked the lowest level in a year. Non-government wages rose 1.0% in the quarter, average hourly earnings rose 0.5%. The strength in the jobs figures led to speculation that the RBNZ pivot to a more neutral stance could be delayed, however, revisions to the OCR projections delivered in February showed an easing of the prior tightening bias.
Economists at NAB expect the 1Q jobs report to confirm an overall softening in the labor market as supply exceeds demand and the unemployment rate rises, the consensus expects a rise of 3/10s of a % to 4.3%. If this forecast is met, NAB noted that it would overshoot the RBNZ's February MPS projection of 4.2%. NAB also warned that there is a risk of an undershooting in wages, the LCI private sector all salary and wage rates are expected to print at 3.7%.
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