We have revised our forecast for BoJ rate hikes. We had previously expected an increase in its uncollateralized overnight call rate target from the present 0-0.1% to 0.25% in 2H FY24 (January 2025), followed by another hike to 0.50% in 1Q 2026. We now expect the former to come in 4Q 2024 (October 30-31 monetary policy meeting) and the latter in 4Q 2025. We also anticipate a further increase to 0.75% sometime in 2026.
Our assumptions regarding factor (1) are shown in chronological order in Figure 1. We believe inflation will be prone to downward pressure in 3Q 2024 on the waning of cost rises and an easing in import prices. This could also affect inflation expectations via Japan’s backward-looking expectation formation. The BoJ is set to release its JGB purchase reduction plan at the next monetary policy meeting on July 30-31 and is unlikely to be able to gauge CPI (underlying inflation) trends or the prospects of a regime change by that time. That said, inflation looks to retreat with the falloff of previous cost factors, and real wages (wages/prices) should improve thanks to this year’s shunto-led rise in nominal wages. These developments should lift the output gap slowly but surely into positive territory. We believe that these trends will intensify in 4Q 2024, laying the groundwork for BoJ rate action at its October meeting. - MUFG
Comments