Some numbers to keep in mind as we head into the August Non Farm Payrolls release, NFP Surprise (actual-consensus) 2016 to date:
5-year Standard Deviation (ex-May 2020): 341K
Standard Deviation (ex-2020): 64K
Average surprise 213K
Bloomberg consensus sees 750K jobs created in August, which is lower than the previous month but still higher than June's consensus
In terms of surprise (actual-consensus), July's 73K beat was half of the June's 150K surprise and in it was the lowest positive surprise going back to October's release
More numbers to keep in mind, Standard deviations + - Consensus:
725K + 1 Std Dev: 1.07M
725K - 1 Std Dev: 384K
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