Today we saw initial jobless claims rise by 22K to 231K, the upside surprise was the largest since the week of January 19th as claims rose to the highest since August
Despite the recent increase, we want to point that claims are holding decently below average. Looking back to 2021, the post-pandemic period has seen jobless claims average around 240K with highs closer to 450K
Claims inching higher is indicative of a recession in the U.S., however, we’re yet to see such a thing develop. Last year’s highs are marked at 261K
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