📝Holding Tactically Neutral View On EUR/SEK: Danske Bank

For three long years the Swedish economy has been getting

nowhere, but now we expect the recovery to finally gain some traction in 2025.

The Swedish savings-investment balance has generatednet-buying of

foreign equities over time. While these are fundamentally SEK negative, there is evidence of a marked reversal of these flows in 2025. Swedish mutual funds data shows a clear increase in the European and Swedish equity exposure at the expense of US equities.

EUR/SEK trades close to our short-term fair value estimate around

11.05. Our medium-term relative macro model sees fair value at 11.20.

On balance, we see relative monetary policy as neutral for short-term fair value and thus EUR/SEK spot. Reflecting the great uncertainty in the current environment, we lean toward a flat forecast profile in 1-3M and a slight upward slope in 6-12M. - Danske Bank