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We had previously noted the Non Farm Payrolls survey for September holding the widest dispersion in months, a 27K standard deviation in the projections was not seen since May. I would have been more surprised if the headline had landed close to consensus.
At a 254K monthly gain, this delivered the largest upside beat since December, the metric is 100K above the median survey (same as May). Also, this is the strongest print recorded since March and the labour market had not printed jobs gains above 200K since May
The unemployment rate surprisingly dipped back to 4.1%, all ethnic groups recorded declines in September. Average hourly earnings rose by 0.4% on the month, above estimates, the yearly pace ticked higher to 4.0%. AHE were also subject to upward revisions
Looking at a sector breakdown, the gains were led by education & health services, while leisure & hospitality posted its strongest month since January 2023. Manufacturing was the only sector to post declines, this was the second straight contraction on durable goods manufacturing
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