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⚠️ Dollar Unreactive to Volatility Swing: Cable FX Macro

Writer's picture: Rosbel DuránRosbel Durán
  • For most of last year, the dollar has been the currency of preference as a safe haven in the G10. In previous years, the position had been disputed with the likes of CHF and JPY

  • Looking back in a 6-month history of daily returns, no other G10 currency has a positive sensitivity to volatility (beta+, G10FX/USD). Despite the reputation as safe havens, the swiss franc and the yen record negative betas to the volatility benchmark

  • Having said this, we would expect days like today to see the dollar outperforming its G10 peers as the VIX rises by 4.4 points, its best day since June. But today will go to the books as an outlier, the dollar is failing to gain traction, this could be from headwinds in rate spreads and a less hawkish Fed outlook


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