*AS SEEN IN RISK IN THE WEEK REPORT 10/11/24, GET ACCESS NOW cablefxm.co.uk
U.S. retail sales eased in August from a prior 1.1% M/m to 0.1%, this was better than the consensus survey of -0.2%, the prior release was revised higher from 1.0%. Nonstore retailers drove sales higher on the month and were responsible for 0.24pp of the increase. Food and beverages sales dragged the headline lower, taking off 0.08pp on the month. The risks for a beat in September have been lowered by the impact from hurricanes and strikes. We remind you that the retail sales data has increased its relevancy as consumer spending has driven growth higher in recent quarters, market reactions to this release are now the second-highest ranking after Non Farm Payrolls (measured by Treasury yields move on absolute beat/miss standard deviations).
The desk at Commerzbank said that it is likely that consumer kept spending at a solid pace in September, their thinking is backed by higher auto sales. Commerzbank concludes that consumption is likely to have expanded at an annualized rate of 3.0% in Q3, which is higher than the prior 2.8%, this would translate to U.S. GDP growth of 2.5%.
Comments