**As seen in Risk In The Week report 03/30/24, subscribe at cablefxm.co.uk/reports
Another upside surprise was recorded in February, however, the March headline will share focus with the prior monthly revisions. Economists had seen employment growing by 200K, the actual came in 75K above consensus, and the prior month was revised from 353K to 229K. There was a decline in manufacturing jobs, this was the first contraction since October. The services sector remains resilient as it added 58K jobs, the largest increase since June. Education and health services led the monthly gain at 85K, slower than the prior. Despite the strong readings in the headline, the unemployment rate unexpectedly ticked higher in February to 3.9% from 3.7%, the level is now at the highest since 2022.
The desk at BMO noted subdued jobless claims and high job postings, they think the unemployment rate should come back down to 3.8% in March. The headline has been rising by a three-month average of 265K, this is higher than the 2023 average of 251K. The desk at BMO sees the average hourly earnings ticking at 0.3% M/m, they said this is below the past-year average. The March NFP forecast range goes from 150K to 250K, we will be looking if there is an extension of the downward revisions from the prior months.
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