**As seen in Risk In The Week report 03/02/24, subscribe at cablefxm.co.uk/reports
January payrolls recorded the largest addition in a year at 353K, higher than the prior and the consensus forecast of 185K. The prior two months were significantly revised to the upside by 126K while the jobless rate surprised economists as it stayed unchanged at 3.7%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.6% M/m, this was higher than the estimate of 0.3% and the largest monthly increase since March 2022, the annual rate printed at 4.5%.
Economists at Commerzbank warned against outliers in the data as the January figures showed a headline beat while the number of hours worked declined. Commerzbank noted the 6-montgh average of NFP M/m is no longer trending down, after the January uptick. Commerzbank expects the February jobless rate to remain at 3.7% and the headline jobs at 200K. Analysts at Wells Fargo Securities said that the February print is not likely to stay above 300K as it has been seen in the prior months and pencil the headline at 195K. Wells Fargo sees average hourly earnings easing to 0.2% M/ m as supply/demand normalizes in the U.S. labour market.
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