**As seen in Risk In The Week report 05/20/24, subscribe at cablefxm.co.uk/reports
U.K. consumer prices rose 3.2% Y/y in March, this was slower than the prior 3.4% and above the consensus forecast of 3.1%. The prior disinflationary trend is holding, as headline CPI is now at the lowest level since September 2021. A mixed report saw the core CPI measure rise 4.2% Y/ y, this was higher than the estimate of 4.1%. While price measures printed above forecast, the 2% target is expected to be reached as soon as 2Q. Economists' consensus forecast pencils U.K. headline CPI rising at 2.5% this year before slowing to 2.2% in 2025.
Analysts at Deutsche Bank said they expect headline prices to fall close to target in April, they added that U.K. CPI is heading below EU and U.S. levels. Deutsche Bank sees the April headline figure rising at 2.2% Y/y and the core measure at 3.6%, they added that risks to their projection are skewed to the downside given potential weakness in both food and core goods.
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