Blog | Cable FX Macro

💶🔺Euro Risk Reversals Stand Most Bullish Since Early 2022: Cable FX Macro

Aug 15

💶🔺Euro Risk Reversals Stand Most Bullish Since Early 2022: Cable FX Macro

Noting EUR/USD option markets skewed towards euro calls into the 1m tenor, risk reversals have retraced since yesterday's market reaction...

📝See Euro At $1.02, Yields Closer to 5.0% On A Republican Sweep: ING

Rosbel Durán

Aug 15

📝See Euro At $1.02, Yields Closer to 5.0% On A Republican Sweep: ING

A Republican clean sweep is the most bullish scenario for the dollar medium term. Loose fiscal, tight monetary policy plus tariffs are...

⚖️🇺🇸Curve Inversion Indicator Points to Recession And Equity Weakness Ahead: Cable FX Macro

Rosbel Durán

Aug 13

⚖️🇺🇸Curve Inversion Indicator Points to Recession And Equity Weakness Ahead: Cable FX Macro

Going back to the 1980s, every time the U.S. Treasury curve steepened from deep inverted levels, a U.S. recession along with an equity...

🏦🇯🇵Japanese Banks Foreign Lending May Have Peaked: Cable FX Macro

Rosbel Durán

Aug 13

🏦🇯🇵Japanese Banks Foreign Lending May Have Peaked: Cable FX Macro

I have previously shown the Mexican peso holding the largest beta to the Japanese yen in the EM space. This is due to the popularity of...

Rosbel Durán

Aug 13

⚠️💱Safe Havens Return to Historical Vol Profile: Cable FX Macro

August G10FX volatility beta update saw safe havens return to their historical profiles, the dollar had been the only +B for most of the...

⚠️August 2024 Vol Spike Surpassed Covid: Cable FX Macro

Rosbel Durán

Aug 11

⚠️August 2024 Vol Spike Surpassed Covid: Cable FX Macro

This post is looking at the weekly <.VIX> range, I found it interesting as the 45.5 point range came to top the Covid crisis of March...

⚠️MXN Holds The Highest Sensitivity to The Yen: Cable FX Macro

Rosbel Durán

Aug 11

⚠️MXN Holds The Highest Sensitivity to The Yen: Cable FX Macro

Last week's volatility spike did not hurt emerging market currencies as much, a Bloomberg measure of EMFX carry trades showed . However,...

💱High Beta Currencies Rose On The Week: Cable FX Macro

Rosbel Durán

Aug 11

💱High Beta Currencies Rose On The Week: Cable FX Macro

Last week may have interrupted some people's day at the beach as the CBOE VIX Index rose to the highest level since the pandemic at...

💱G10FX Carry Underperforms Developing Currencies: Cable FX Macro

Rosbel Durán

Aug 7

💱G10FX Carry Underperforms Developing Currencies: Cable FX Macro

There has been a lot of chatter on the Mexican peso carry unwind over the last couple of sessions, MXN weakness took the rate above 20.0...

💶🔺EUR/USD Swap Differential Points to Move Higher: Cable FX Macro

Rosbel Durán

Aug 6

💶🔺EUR/USD Swap Differential Points to Move Higher: Cable FX Macro

Following the U.S. July labour report, the EU-US swap rate differential spiked to the highest level in more than a year to around...

💹USD/JPY Forecasts Revised Lower: Cable FX Macro

Rosbel Durán

Aug 6

💹USD/JPY Forecasts Revised Lower: Cable FX Macro

The median 1Q25 USD/JPY projection sees the exchange rate trading at 150.0 with forecasts delivered as recent as today. Dollar-yen was...

🏦🇺🇸Market Adds Fed Rate Cut Wagers: Cable FX Macro

Rosbel Durán

Aug 1

🏦🇺🇸Market Adds Fed Rate Cut Wagers: Cable FX Macro

SOFR calendar spreads show the market is pricing around 86bps of easing this year, in other words, traders now see three rate cuts on the...

⚖️❗️U.S. 10-Year Yield Drops For Third Consecutive Month In July: Cable FX Macro

Rosbel Durán

Aug 1

⚖️❗️U.S. 10-Year Yield Drops For Third Consecutive Month In July: Cable FX Macro

The benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year yield recorded a third consecutive monthly drop in July, such a streak has not been seen since 2021...

💹USD/JPY Extends Interest Rate Differential Catch Up: Cable FX Macro

Rosbel Durán

Jul 31

💹USD/JPY Extends Interest Rate Differential Catch Up: Cable FX Macro

The last coupe of sessions has been heavy for the dollar-yen cross, the BoJ hikes rates while the FOMC signals easing might be as soon as...

⚠️💱Euro, Sterling Post Largest Sensibility Increase to Vol: Cable FX Macro

Rosbel Durán

Jul 16

⚠️💱Euro, Sterling Post Largest Sensibility Increase to Vol: Cable FX Macro

The G10 is holding to the same currency volatility profiles we have seen so far this year, with a few exceptions. EUR and GBP are...

💱Rates Driving G10FX Performance In 2024: Cable FX Macro

Rosbel Durán

Jul 16

💱Rates Driving G10FX Performance In 2024: Cable FX Macro

Heading into the second half of the year, sterling leads the 2024 performance as it is the only currency in the group to post gains vs...

⚖️🇺🇸Curve Steepener Retreats On Strong Treasury Bid: Cable FX Macro

Rosbel Durán

Jul 16

⚖️🇺🇸Curve Steepener Retreats On Strong Treasury Bid: Cable FX Macro

2s30s curve uninverted on Monday session following the weekend developments, the curve has not seen longer-dated yields surpass the...

🇫🇷Risks Remain On Poor French Fiscal Position: Cable FX Macro

Rosbel Durán

Jul 16

🇫🇷Risks Remain On Poor French Fiscal Position: Cable FX Macro

Fiscal discipline comes to mind in a year of elections, spending is good for domestic growth as long as deficits are within the rule....

🐍🦅Mexican Peso Tests Key Level: Cable FX Macro

Rosbel Durán

Jul 11

🐍🦅Mexican Peso Tests Key Level: Cable FX Macro

Peso strength has sent the USD/MXN closer to mid-17.50, the rally derived from the election results risk premium had seen the spot shy of...

🎈Inflation Surprise Falls to New Low: Cable FX Macro

Rosbel Durán

Jul 11

🎈Inflation Surprise Falls to New Low: Cable FX Macro

**As seen in Online Tools> Inflation Dashboard, subscribe at cablefxm.co.uk/reports Headline U.S. prices posted a second consecutive...