Blog | Cable FX Macro

RPT--🏦🇦🇺Cable FX Macro Weekly Note: RBA June Cash Rate Decision

Jun 18

RPT--🏦🇦🇺Cable FX Macro Weekly Note: RBA June Cash Rate Decision

**As seen in Risk In The Week report 06/14/24, subscribe at cablefxm.co.uk/reports The RBA left its Cash Rate Target unchanged at 4.35%...

RPT--🇺🇸❗️Cable FX Macro Weekly Note: U.S. May Retail Sales

Rosbel Durán

Jun 18

RPT--🇺🇸❗️Cable FX Macro Weekly Note: U.S. May Retail Sales

**As seen in Risk In The Week report 06/14/24, subscribe at cablefxm.co.uk/reports U.S. retail sales slowed to print flat in April from...

📝Base Case Is RBA Rate Cut In November: NAB

Rosbel Durán

Jun 18

📝Base Case Is RBA Rate Cut In November: NAB

NAB’s very preliminary forecast for Q2 Trimmed Mean CPI is 0.9% q/q, one tenth above the RBA’s May SoMP forecast of 0.8%. We think this...

📝Trump's Conviction Did Not Move Election Volatility: Barclays Strategy

Rosbel Durán

Jun 18

📝Trump's Conviction Did Not Move Election Volatility: Barclays Strategy

With US presidential election five months away (i.e. on 5-Nov), activity in November options appears modest vs contracts in its vicinity,...

Rosbel Durán

Jun 17

❗️📝Cable FX Macro Weekly Note

**As seen in Risk In The Week report 06/14/24, subscribe at cablefxm.co.uk/reports This week: U.S. Retail Sales RBA Cash Rate Decision...

🔺💵U.S. Dollar Pares CPI Losses On Risk Off Trade: Cable FX Macro

Rosbel Durán

Jun 16

🔺💵U.S. Dollar Pares CPI Losses On Risk Off Trade: Cable FX Macro

Our measure of the dollar, the Cable FX Macro Dollar Index, posted marginal losses this week. Price action was contained into risk events...

📝Carry Unwind Amplified As Hedge Funds Increased Beta: J.P. Morgan FX Strategy

Rosbel Durán

Jun 14

📝Carry Unwind Amplified As Hedge Funds Increased Beta: J.P. Morgan FX Strategy

Figure 10 highlights relative positioning in a favored carry structure, relative to spot, which does indeed suggest that positioning will...

📝Political Uncertainty Drives EUR Lower: UBS Strategy

Rosbel Durán

Jun 14

📝Political Uncertainty Drives EUR Lower: UBS Strategy

Friday has seen a real extension of EUR lower, driven by European politics and market risk sentiment. Most of the action is in EURXes not...

RPT--🇸🇪❗️Cable FX Macro Weekly Note: Sweden May Consumer Prices

Rosbel Durán

Jun 14

RPT--🇸🇪❗️Cable FX Macro Weekly Note: Sweden May Consumer Prices

**As seen in Risk In The Week report 06/09/24, subscribe at cablefxm.co.uk/reports Sweden headline consumer prices accelerated in April...

RPT--🏦🇯🇵Cable FX Macro Weekly Note: BoJ June Rate Decision

Rosbel Durán

Jun 14

RPT--🏦🇯🇵Cable FX Macro Weekly Note: BoJ June Rate Decision

**As seen in Risk In The Week report 06/09/24, subscribe at cablefxm.co.uk/reports Back in April, the Bank of Japan left its policy rates...

🏦🇺🇸Desk Commentary: FOMC June Rate Decision

Rosbel Durán

Jun 13

🏦🇺🇸Desk Commentary: FOMC June Rate Decision

Cable FX Macro: I fear some market participants and desks may miss the bigger picture. Currently, the VIX stands below 12.0%, a 1 vol...

🎈U.S. Inflation Surprise Index Falls to Lowest In 9 Months: Cable FX Macro

Rosbel Durán

Jun 12

🎈U.S. Inflation Surprise Index Falls to Lowest In 9 Months: Cable FX Macro

**As seen in Online Tools>Inflation Dashboard, subscribe at cablefxm.co.uk/reports Our own measure of U.S. inflation surprises has fallen...

📝Real Money Split On USD/MXN Spike Higher: UBS Strategy

Rosbel Durán

Jun 12

📝Real Money Split On USD/MXN Spike Higher: UBS Strategy

USD/MXN gaps higher once as New York walks in. The pair continues to trade quite choppy each day, as holding onto gamma longs/risk...

🏦❗️Cable FX Macro Weekly Note: FOMC June Rate Decision

Rosbel Durán

Jun 12

🏦❗️Cable FX Macro Weekly Note: FOMC June Rate Decision

**As seen in Risk In The Week report 06/09/24, subscribe at cablefxm.co.uk/reports The Fed will most likely leave rates unchanged this...

🇺🇸❗️Cable FX Macro Weekly Note: U.S. May Consumer Prices

Rosbel Durán

Jun 12

🇺🇸❗️Cable FX Macro Weekly Note: U.S. May Consumer Prices

**As seen in Risk In The Week report 06/09/24, subscribe at cablefxm.co.uk/reports U.S. headline consumer prices eased to 3.4% Y/y from...

Rosbel Durán

Jun 11

📝❗️Cable FX Macro Weekly Note

**As seen in Risk In The Week report 06/09/24, subscribe at cablefxm.co.uk/reports This week: U.S. inflation FOMC meeting Norway...

Rosbel Durán

Jun 11

RPT--❗️🇳🇴Cable FX Macro Weekly Note: Norway May Consumer Prices

**As seen in Risk In The Week report 06/09/24, subscribe at cablefxm.co.uk/reports Norway April CPI-ATE measure rose 4.4% Y/y and 0.9%...

⚖️⛔️Credit Spreads Widen On OAT Underperformance: Cable FX Macro

Rosbel Durán

Jun 10

⚖️⛔️Credit Spreads Widen On OAT Underperformance: Cable FX Macro

Domestic political risks saw the periphery offered on Monday session, but declines were led by French OATs, a movement index calculated...

⚠️💱Peso Front-End Implied Undervalued By Around 400Bps: Cable FX Macro

Rosbel Durán

Jun 10

⚠️💱Peso Front-End Implied Undervalued By Around 400Bps: Cable FX Macro

Last week, the spike in the USD/MXN recorded a range above 1.50 pesos. Over the past five years, ranges this wide have been seen only 7...

📝Rising Political Risks to Pressure Domestic Spreads: Commerzbank Strategy

Rosbel Durán

Jun 10

📝Rising Political Risks to Pressure Domestic Spreads: Commerzbank Strategy

The present situation looks more akin to 2017, when the sudden emergence of risks of a Le Pen election victory triggered sustained...